It reminds me of the habitually incompetent student who spends the summer playing and then comes back to school swearing to his parents that his new, positive attitude will be the starting point to earning good grades. Of course, he has no intentions of working hard- his only goal is to survive on obfuscation until next summer. What is needed for actual improvement is a change in perspective, and a great deal of work.
I would not expect that from a chronically poor student and do not expect it from Obama.
For perspective, the President (and then USG as a whole), needs to realize that centralized economic planning of all sorts is a failure. Their only objective at this point should be cutting government and saving the dollar, not trying to invent yet another costly and ineffective program.
As far as work, they should start figuring out how to implement this new perspective in the least painful way possible. Expenditures are going to be cut across the board and this includes entitlements. How can we safely reduce the welfare state without throwing people into the streets? What should we avoid cutting and what can we avoid to slash?
I think Jobs Corps, the War on Poverty relic of the Johnson Administration which has been wasting money for almost fifty years, should be eliminated. Jobs Corps functions as sort of a holding ground for high school dropouts and criminals (aka, "high risk kids"). Catering to youths up to 24 years old, the program theoretically trains them in vocational skills, but for many it is simply an opportunity to gain free housing and a subsidy before turning 25 and transitioning to grown-up welfare. Jobs Corps even offers day care!
If there is any group of our population that we should not be subsidizing, it is young, able bodied working age adults. All this program does is acclimate people to dependency.
Of course, Obama is not going to cut a program which also serves as a feeder to the dependency constituency.
I predict the President's (worthless) plan to create jobs will instead involve more USG funded jobs programs. Here is why.
He has to cut the budget because we are at a breaking point with the national debt. The USG is in jeopardy of simply not being able to borrow anymore. He has to make some gestures. Political pressure from the right also requires serious budget reform. Great things are expected from the Super Congress (of course they are, it is an unprecedented, unconstitutional body- how exciting!). But Obama will have to ask them to at least double their planned cuts to over $2 trillion.
Much of that will likely come from defense and related spending. Both parties like to protect the military-industrial complex, as that is where so many campaign donations originate, but when push comes to shove, companies cannot vote. Political donations have always been a risk for the private sector, just like any other investment. When Obama shafts them later this year it will be no different than when Greece requests a delayed payment on their bonds, or a homeowner decides not to pay their mortgage. It is the cost of doing business and, actually, a sign the system works.
The problem is, most voters just don't get it. What they think America needs is USG intervention: more stimulus, more plans, more programs, more spending. People do not want government to do less they want more. And Obama will give it to them.
He will reduce spending on defense, increase some taxes where he can, and put in place his own version of Jobs Corps, only raising the age limit from 24 to 99. Or he will offer some variation on this theme. It might be politically wise to throw a bone to the recently violated corporate world and offer a tax break for hiring the unemployed. Another possibility is some sort of new program to send people back to school, under the illusion that four years of inactivity is an intelligent way to stimulate economic growth.
Whatever the White House spits out next month it is sure to be a failure. These sort of large-scale, press conference launched, communal USG programs are always a waste. And they never end. And that is exactly why we are where we are today.
There might be some short-term bump from the effort. Consumer sentiment might briefly rise and retail sales might go up, for example. But inflation will destroy those gains and GDP will tick down, as unemployment bounces back up. But the programs and the theory in which their grounded will continue.
Of course, long term it is all unsustainable. But from the President's perspective, he just needs the illusion to last until next summer- or in his case, next November.